Roubini says he takes no pleasure from the current economic hardship. Still, he's not saying he'd prefer to have been wrong. 'You're glad in the sense that, if you're intellectually honest, you're found out to be right, [even if] you don't go around and gloat,' he says. Despite his prescience, he's suffered just like the rest of us: he's remained fully invested in stock index funds through the market downturn, causing his portfolio to plummet. And he has no expectation of a quick turnaround. He thinks the recession will last until the end of 2009, with the economy contracting a severe 4 or 5 percent, and unemployment peaking at above 9 percent in 2010. Stocks have further to fall, he says, suggesting the Dow could bottom out around 7,000. He's encouraged by the incoming Obama administration's talk of a big stimulus package, though, and expresses confidence that Summers and Geithner will prove aggressive recession fighters. And though critics may dismiss Roubini as permanently dour, he says that's not necessarily so. 'Eventually, when we get out of this crisis, I'll be the first one to call the recovery,' he says. 'Then maybe I'll be called Dr. Boom.' In his view, alas, that name change could be a long time coming.Why do you suppose he did that?
Saturday, December 20, 2008
Nuriel Roubini, aka Dr. Doom
From Power 2009: Economist Nuriel Roubini, aka Dr. Doom | Newsweek The Global Elite | Newsweek.com